时间：2024年10月26日（周六）9：00

地点：气候变化与能源经济研究中心会议室

Paper1：庞立东 Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades

摘要：Meeting the Paris Agreement’s climate targets necessitates better knowledge about which climate policies work in reducing emissions at the necessary scale. We provide a global, systematic ex post evaluation to identify policy combinations that have led to large emission reductions out of 1500 climate policies implemented between 1998 and 2022 across 41 countries from six continents. Our approach integrates a comprehensive climate policy database with a machine learning–based extension of the common difference-in-differences approach. We identified 63 successful policy interventions with total emission reductions between 0.6 billion and 1.8 billion metric tonnes CO2. Our insights on effective but rarely studied policy combinations highlight the important role of price-based instruments in well-designed policy mixes and the policy efforts necessary for closing the emissions gap.

Paper2：余文珺The Economic Effects of Long-Term Climate Change: Evidence from the Little Ice Age

摘要：Recent studies consistently find important economic effects of year-to-year weather fluctuations. I study the economic effects of long-term and gradual climate change over 250 years in the Little Ice Age (1600-1850),during which people and economies had time to adapt. Results show significant negative economic effects of long-term climate change. Temperature impacted the economy through its effect on agricultural productivity and mortality. To adapt to the Little Ice Age, economies increased trade and changed land use. I discuss the relevance of these results for understanding the impact of today’s climate change, especially in developing countries.