时间：2025年9月27（周六）9：00

地点：气候变化与能源经济研究中心会议室

Paper1：贾梦雨 Carbon pricing, compensation, and competitiveness: Lessons from UK manufacturing

摘要：In theory, market-based regulatory instruments correct market failures at least cost. However, evidence on their efficacy remains scarce. Using administrative data, we estimate that, on average, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)—the world’s first and largest market-based climate policy—induced regulated manufacturing firms to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 14–16% with no detectable contractions in economic activity. We find no evidence of outsourcing to unregulated firms or markets; instead, firms made targeted investments, reducing the emissions intensity of production. These results indicate that the EU ETS induced global emissions reductions, a necessary and sufficient condition for mitigating climate change. We show that the absence of any negative economic effects can be rationalized in a model where pricing the externality induces firms to make fixed-cost investments in energy-saving capital that reduce marginal variable costs.

Paper2：王瀚铤 The Effectiveness of Carbon Emission Trading System: Evidence from China’s Regional Markets

摘要：This paper evaluates the effectiveness of China’s regional carbon markets, which in 2018 covered 692 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, over 40% of the coverage of the European Union’s ETS. Utilizing a comprehensive city-level panel and synthetic difference-indifferences estimation, we find that China’s regional ETSs significantly reduced carbon emissions without negatively impacting city-level economic activities, as measured by nighttime lights and firm-level revenue and profit. This suggests that carbon mitigation can occur alongside economic growth. Emissions reduction was achieved through broad structural transformation and green technologies adoption, rather than green innovation. Effects are more pronounced in regions with greater power sector competition and stronger local state capacity. Finally, we find no evidence of carbon leakage to neighboring areas or to cities with close production ties to ETS cities.